Monday, July 29, 2013

Sea Level Rise from Climate Central

written by Ben Strauss (the entire article is here):

We have two sea levels: the sea level of today, and the far higher sea level that is already being locked in for some distant tomorrow.
In a new paper published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), I analyze the growth of the locked-in amount of sea level rise and other implications of Levermann and colleagues’ work. This article and its interactive map are based on this new PNAS paper, and they include extended results.
To begin with, it appears that the amount of carbon pollution to date has already locked in more than 4 feet of sea level rise past today’s levels. That is enough, at high tide, to submerge more than half of today’s population in 316 coastal cities and towns (home to 3.6 million) in the lower 48 states.
By the end of this century, if global climate emissions continue to increase, that may lock in 23 feet of sea level rise, and threaten 1,429 municipalities that would be mostly submerged at high tide. Those cities have a total population of 18 million. But under a very low emissions scenario, our sea level rise commitment might be limited to about 7.5 feet, which would threaten 555 coastal municipalities: some 900 fewer communities than in the higher-emissions scenario.


  1. Thanks for posting this ,your job may seem thankless but I assure you ,you do those of us who read you a great service.

  2. I want to thank you, too. I've been a reader here since December when I found your site via NBL.

    Not only is the content of your blog of interest to me, I think you're a terrific writer and I always look forward to your newest posts.

  3. Thank you Debra! Now if only NBL will come back online, waaah!

  4. What has happened to NBL? "Near Term Extinction" also "down for maintenance" it says.

  5. Well, Guy is in Amsterdam so he's having a hard time dealing with the hosting company. There is a lot of speculation on FB that it was a deliberate NSA attack or something. I tend to doubt that.

  6. The error message I'm getting from NBL says: FORBIDDEN. This only serves to make me want access even more.

    Five years ago we moved from a Chicago suburb. This morning -- out of the blue -- a neighbor from there called me. During the conversation she said that 3/4 of the trees in the subD had been removed because of disease. I didn't mention ozone, etc., but it's what I was thinking since reading your very good book and blog.

    Many trees where I live now (Raleigh, in a forest) are also dying or in decline.

  7. Hopefully, it will be up and running again soon! It is most likely a server glitch. I can't see why anyone would hack it when it only takes about 5 minutes to set up a new blog. Now, if GUY disappeared, I would suspect foul play. But I bet he's having a blast right now. The trees are bad everywhere. I can't look at a commercial or tv show or contemporary movie without seeing dead trees anymore. It's too bad the chemtrailers are so fixated on a conspiracy because they do notice the trees. But they would rather not blame our lifestyle.

    I left a comment that's in moderation - I'm curious to see if it gets approved: I agree that trees are dying, it's pretty obvious if you just look at them. And there have been scientific surveys that have shown that it is a global trend. There have also been decades of research into air pollution and how bad it is for plants, including agricultural crops. It's quite likely that the stratospheric ozone layer is being destroyed by aerosols and there is more radiation, however, I do not think that is the primary cause that trees are dying because I see extensive foliar damage and it is not distributed according to exposure to light. It is generally on the older, lower leaves which and matches the symptoms of tropospheric ozone pollution which has been replicated in countless controlled fumigation experiments. Ozone is invisible but the background level is inexorably increasing. It causes plants to be more vulnerable to insects, disease, drought and fungus. The bark peeling off is usually due to a secondary fungal attack due a compromised immune system from pollution. Unfortunately, we are putting so many ozone precursors (and aerosols) into the atmosphere by driving cars, burning coal, flying and shipping, there is plenty right there to explain the decline of forests. There is no evidence for chemtrails, and there is no need for a conspiracy. The consumer lifestyle fostered by industrial civilization is at the heart of the problem, unless you want to say, overpopulation is. Either way it will not be fixed by pointing fingers at a secret plot. We have met the enemy, and he is us. links to scientific research here:

  8. Gail says «I can't look at a commercial or tv show or contemporary movie without seeing dead trees anymore.»

    same with the sky. all skies are blurred because of too much planes (and emissions in general I guess). diffracted sunlignt through vapour veil, always a white filter between the sun and the earth contributing to global dimming, disorienting of insects (including pollinators of course), causing accidents by rendering object, cars, etc. too bright, etcetera. All coming to an end.


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