Sunday, August 16, 2015

Dispatch from the Endocene, #9

This photograph, captioned "Young men enjoying their brand new vehicle which topped at 25 miles per hour", is dated 1924 and placed in Ohio.  It's remarkably crisp, and captures the intensity of the pleasure and excitement the driver and his passengers are feeling.  They gaze forward expressing an almost delirious hypnotic trance, so enamored are they of their unexpected powerful mobility.  I doubt that they could have been dissuaded from availing themselves of the car's intoxicating mystique, not even if they knew what the age of fossil fuels would usher in - the wars, the pollution, and ultimately the extinction of life itself.
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No, I do not think humans can help themselves from indulging in cheap energy.  We fly and ride in cars despite the risk of accidents.  Even people who claim to know better make excuses to continue to travel, to use electronic technology, and purchase items manufactured from plastic.

"I have a message for future generations.  That is, Please accept our apologies.  We were roaring drunk on petroleum...The only fun most humans beings have ever had - any feeling of power or respect - has been driving automobiles.  And so they're not about to give that up." ~ Kurt Vonnegut, at the Connecticut Forum in 2006

Following is the transcript from my segment on Extinction Radio which airs Sunday, August 16 (click to listen to the live broadcast at 3pm EST).  The embed to listen to the archived podcast will be added at the end of this post.  Photographs unless otherwise noted are taken from an online article about industrial agriculture, waste, and habitat destruction.  Transcript:

Thanks Mike, it’s great to be back with the 9th Dispatch from the Endocene. Let’s start with a new overview paper about the rate of extinctions now occuring on Earth. I’ll read from the University of Leeds article announcing the publication, which says in part:

“Widespread species are at just as high risk of being wiped out as rare ones after global mass extinction events. …There have been five mass extinction events in the Earth’s history, including climate change caused by volcanoes and an asteroid hit that wiped out the dinosaurs. In general, geographically widespread animals are less likely to become extinct than animals with smaller geographic ranges, offering insurance against regional environmental catastrophes.

…However, a study published in Nature Communications has found this insurance is rendered useless during global mass extinction events, and that widely distributed animals are just as likely to suffer extinction as those that are less widespread.


…Dr Dunhill added: ‘These results shed light on the likely outcome of the current biodiversity crisis caused by human activity. It appears a human-driven sixth mass extinction will affect all organisms, not just currently endangered and geographically restricted species.’”

Note, he said “all organisms” so that presumably includes you and me.

Another important overview study has emerged, published in the journal Conservation Biology, which warns us that the 6th extinction is proceeding far faster than had been previously estimated. 

One article about the research explains that, “Hawai'i has been called the "extinction capital of the world." But, with the exception of the islands' birds, there has until now been no accurate assessment of the true level of this catastrophic loss. Invertebrates (insects, snails, spiders, etc.) constitute the vast majority of the species that make up Hawai'i's formerly spectacularly diverse and unique biota.

…The team focused on the most diverse group of Hawaiian land snails, [a family] of which 325 species have been recognized - all known only from Hawai'i. The researchers determined that only 15 of these species could still be found alive, and estimated that the rate of extinction may have been as high as 14 percent of the fauna per decade.”
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Extrapolating from this island trend has dire implications for the overall extinction rate, globally. But let’s turn to the world’s water and have a look at what is happening there.

The Dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico is larger this summer than it has ever been, about the size of Connecticut and Rhode Island combined. One of many articles on this record-breaking status tells us that “These areas are also referred to as hypoxia areas and occur when there is nutrient runoff, largely due to the fertilizer used in fields near the water. This accelerates algae growth, which compromises the oxygen levels in the water when they decompose.” It’s thought that heavy rains in spring may have added to the nutrient overload, making this the worst episode ever.

Numerous reports are surfacing about rampant seaweed clogging beaches everywhere in the Carribean. One begins “It smells, it’s ugly, and it’s killing wildlife.  From the Riviera Maya of Mexico to the shores of islands like St. Martin, St. Thomas, and Anguilla, once-pristine beaches are being inundated by massive amounts of thick, brown seaweed that refuse to go away and are wreaking havoc on the ecosystems. …On Antigua, seaweed piles have reached 4 feet tall in some areas. On Barbados, 42 turtles recently died after getting caught in the seaweed and suffocating. Shocking photos from the island of Tobago emerged this week, showing boats trapped in a bay blanketed in seaweed.  Making matters worse, the seaweed — which harbors sea creatures — emits a pungent scent when it begins to rot.”


On the other side of the American continent from the Gulf of Mexico, multiple enormous toxic algae blooms of unprecedented size and frequency are poisoning the entire chain of life in the Pacific Ocean. Birds are falling from the skies, and seals are having siezures.

The Al Jazeera version of this disaster reads: “The toxic algae blooms in the Pacific Ocean stretching from southern California to Alaska — already the largest ever recorded — appear to have reached as far as the Aleutian Islands, scientists say. “The anecdotal evidence suggests we’re having a major event,” said Bruce Wright, a scientist with the Aleutian Pribilof Island Association, the federally recognized tribal organization of Alaska’s native Aleuts. “All the populations [of marine mammals] are way down in the Aleutians.” While algal blooms are not uncommon in the Pacific, 2015’s blooms appear to be the largest on record, scientists say. Stretching from Southern California to Alaska, the blooms are responsible for unprecedented closures of fisheries and unusual deaths of marine life up and down the Pacific coast.” Meanwhile, humanity has not slowed the deliberate and ruthless slaughter of wildlife, killed for supposed medical purposes, food, sport, and the ultimate ridiculous purpose, collecting souvenirs.

The Daily Mail notes that:

“Seahorses could be extinct in 30 years: Trade in dried wildlife souvenirs could see the marine creatures wiped out” “Seahorses will be wiped out within three decades by the illegal sale of dead wildlife as curiosities, according to a conservation charity

…The majority of seahorses found for sale in the UK come from the Far East and some are sold here for as little as a few pounds. Official figures show that 64 million seahorses are taken from the wild every year and used in traditional Chinese medicine and the curio trade.

But another charity, Save Our Seahorses (SOS), carried out undercover research that suggests this is grossly underestimated and in fact more than 150 million seahorses are killed annually.”

We don’t often associate sharks with Sweden, and maybe this headline explains why:

“Sweden’s sharks heading towards extinction; populations are not recovering despite a long-standing fishing ban” - and this is because, according to the article, that

“…sharks have a long life cycle. Females do not become sexually mature until 10-15 years of age, have a 24-month gestation period and only give birth to a few young. This makes sharks particularly susceptible to extinction.



...According to Mikael Svensson, the future of Swedish sharks remains gloomy, after years of hard fishing and trawling activity that destroyed their habitat.

‘No one sees what happens in the ocean. If this kind of species destruction had happened on land, people would have shouted themselves hoarse long before it had gone this far.’”

Of course, we all know this isn’t actually true, because the same kind of species destruction IS happening on land, and most people are completely nonchalant about the carnage, if they even know it is occuring - especially if it is the mass die of non-charismatic big mammals, like, well, vultures.
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National Geographic notes that:

“Across Africa, vultures are electrocuted by power lines or crushed by wind turbines. Their brains are ground to snuff by witch doctors who believe the substance has magical powers. They die after eating pesticide-laced carcasses intended for lions and other predators.”

It’s predicted that particularly due to the poisoning of animals they feed on, vultures will go extinct in the near future, thus upsetting the entire ecosystem when they no longer provide their scavenger services. Of course, there may be nothing to scavenge by then, anyway.
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If you can stand to read more about the vile trade in ivory, check out the National Geographic September issue.

Other than Wilbur’s famous ally Charlotte, spiders are not generally any more popular than vultures, but their demise should serve as a warning - if not a source of mourning.

A new approach to quantifying the effects of insecticides has demonstrated that they may be worse than previously imagined, for spider populations. An article reveals that “Insecticides that are sprayed in orchards and fields across North America may be more toxic to spiders than scientists previously believed

…A McGill research team reached this conclusion after looking at changes in the behaviour of individual Bronze Jumping Spiders both before and after exposure to Phosmet, a widely used broad spectrum insecticide. It is a finding with far-reaching implications for agricultural production and ecosystem health.”

We are poisoning ourselves, too. In addition to the recent determination that cancer is almost entirely the result of exposure to various modern toxins, as mentioned in a previous Dispatch, a series of studies indicate that neurological diseases and deaths are increasing in not just the elderly but young people too.

The research reveals that for conditions like dementia and Parkinson’s, “the speed and size of the increases in just 20 years points to mainly environmental influences”.

The health impacts from air pollution in China have been underestimated, according to new modeling, which announced the alarming finding that it is killing a staggering 4,000 people PER DAY, which equals 1 in 6 of all premature deaths.

One news account reports that “Physicists at the University of California, Berkeley, calculated that about 1.6 million people in China die each year from heart, lung and stroke problems because of incredibly polluted air.”

Since we are on the topic of air pollution, I feel obligated to make the usual segue into the damage it does to trees.  In the grand scheme it doesn’t matter, because of the onslaught of existential threats.  But, certainly the accelerating die-off of trees contributes in many ways to the rapidity of the demise of many other species, including ours.  We lose shade, and nuts and fruits, we lose lumber and paper, we lose oxygen and precipitation, we lose beauty, and a crucial CO2 sink…and an enormous, incalculable number of wild animals and understory flora lose habitat.  It seems impossible to me to exaggerate the importance of trees to the rest of the life on this planet.

One thing I have noticed is that very often when news articles mention trees falling and are accompanied by photos or videos, it’s quite obvious that they were deeply rotted inside.  Rarely is this remarked upon.  On my blog, Wit’s End, I will post some examples of recent pictures illustrating this, along with today’s transcript and links to articles for this Dispatch.  Here are some of the highlights.

In July, a rough weather system tore through northern Michigan and elsewhere in the upper midwest.


Photos from around Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore on Lake Michigan posted to a blog revealed the poor health of the trees that blew over.


From closer to Chicago more photos were posted on Facebook with the report that many trees were down and had crushed cars. These too were rotting on the inside.




While I was looking for pictures from that storm system I found I had neglected a near miss just one year ago, in Chicago August 2014.  A 100 year old oak fell without warning on a woman walking her dog, both of whom miraculously emerged unscathed. The reporter in this instance was at least astute enough to note in the video that “…this tree was inspected a year ago and it was never flagged as dangerous. But one look inside and it’s evident this estimated 100 year old tree was completely hollow.”

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"CBS 2’s Mike Puccinelli reports the woman was walking her dog near 5th Street and Greenleaf Avenue shortly before 8 a.m., when a 65-foot tree fell on her. The tree split about 6 feet up its trunk, much of which was hollow and rotting.

'Obviously, the condition of the tree had a lot to do with it. We didn’t have any higher winds than normal this morning,” Wilmette Fire Lt. Robert Brill said. 'The tree has been decaying for some time, and apparently let go this morning.'"

At around the same time, in Winona, a rural area, another rotted tree fell, mostly crushing the roof of a house and terrorizing the inhabitant.


Also in Winona Lake, Indiana, in July 2014, a 14 year old boy was crushed to death when a tree fell on his trailer.  Notice that all these trees still have leaves.
That same month, in Mobile, Alabama, two women and a puppy were rescued after they narrowly missed death when this giant tree fell:
Just this week in Hoover, Alabama, a arborist crew attempting to remove a dead specimen lost control and it landed on the adjacent house.

In April, a tree marked for removal fell and killed a woman in Bond Hill, Ohio.

Closer to home, I discovered that there has been a string of fatalities and near misses this summer in New Jersey and nearby states.

On July 10, a mother of three was driving to work in Millburn, when a tree fell on her car and killed her. An article about that incident noted it wasn’t the only one in recent days: “10 days ago, 21-year-old Michelle Mian of New Milford was crushed when a tree snapped as she walked to her car in her driveway. Police blamed the weather for that tragedy."
 [Although it was not windy at the time, it had rained the night before.]

...But a few days later, it was on a calm and wind free afternoon when a massive tree toppled on two cars in a driveway in Summit."
  Why did it fall? In one news video,  a reporter says "One look at the rotted tree trunk says a lot."
The red oak was over 200 years old, estimated to have been 95 feet high, with a 20 foot circumference.
A tree fell on a moving car in Scarsdale on July 9, a dashcam caught a tree falling on the Bronx River Parkway in July 15, while back in May, a large tree fell in the night crushing cars in Mount Vernon, New York.  Residents said it should have been removed four years ago.  A driver was killed in Great Falls, Virginia on July 17 by a tree that witnesses said had been showing "obvious signs of decay". You can see that some of its leaves had turned brown and shriveled up, which unfortunately is true of practically every tree you look at now.
It’s important to note that many species of trees, certainly oaks and maples, normally live many centuries and of course there are others, like sequoias, that live for thousands of years. When they are rotting and falling and losing root mass to anchor them to the ground in what is, for them, adolescence or young adulthood, something is very wrong.

Usually, drought and warming from climate change are the preferred cause, but that explanation doesn’t hold up to scrutiny for the many places on earth that haven’t had droughts, or for trees that are being watered.

As I was chronicling these tragedies I learned that two sleeping youngsters, as yet unidentified, died while camping in Yosemite on Friday morning the 14th of August at 5 am, when a limb from an oak fell on their tent.  I cannot imagine the grief of their parents.

This frame made from a video provided by KFSN-TV-abc30 shows a portion of an oak tree that split away, falling to the ground and killing two young campers in a tent at the Upper Pines campground in Yosemite National Park, Calif.

When I was growing up, and I’m 60 now, I never, ever once heard of anyone having a tree or branch fall on them. I thought of trees as at least as solid and permanent as stone. People climbed on them; they built treehouses in them!  Now, it is so commonplace for trees to crush cars and houses and people, that they are widely looked upon as dangerous potential hazards to be avoided, amputated, and removed in preventive maintenance.

One of many stories about the drought in California initially said -

“Across the state, 12 million trees died over the past year due to lack of water, according to the U.S. Forest Service. While the bulk of those deaths occurred outside urban areas, conservationists and officials are now focusing on cities, where mandated water reductions are becoming visible in drying limbs and scorched leaves.”

“Fears that parched trees could pose a danger were heightened this week when a 75-year-old, 75-foot-tall pine tree fell on a group of kids from a camp at a Southern California children's museum, leaving a boy and girl hospitalized with serious injuries. An independent arborist and another from the city of Pasadena are conducting an investigation into the cause, which has not been determined to be drought-related.”

“Green visited the site of Tuesday's tree collapse and said it appeared unlikely the drought was to blame because the area around the tree looked well irrigated and its root system appeared compromised — a sign of rot, decay or injury, not necessarily the drought.

Still, the collapse highlighted concerns about the health of urban trees. Los Angeles alone has more than 25 square miles of parks and some 327,000 trees.”

“Green and other arborists said they have seen an increase in the number of diseased trees in the city. As they get less water, they become more prone to illness caused by pests. In addition to bark beetles, Green has seen a newer pest drilling tunnels in the trunks of ‘dozens and dozens of trees.’”

Another explanation from the LA Times emphasized the lack of roots, which is according to scientific literature, the very first injury that exposure to ozone causes.

“Prolonged drought, a lack of strong roots and a burst of heavy rain were the main reasons an 85-foot pine toppled and injured children in a Pasadena park last month, an arborist's report said Thursday…The arborist found that, despite its 42-inch trunk and 60-foot canopy, the tree did not have wide-spreading anchor roots."

A blog from the “Almond Doctor” discusses Lower Limb Dieback (LLDB), which says it has become “…an emerging problem within many almond orchards throughout California. Observations of orchards with LLDB occur independent of soil types, irrigation systems, and planting spacings, while typically affecting orchards that are in their 8th leaf or older.”

The bewilderment of city officials is common across the country; indeed the world.  Reno is typical.  One article chronicles the loss in dour terms:


"Reno was designated a Tree City by the Arbor Foundation nearly 33 years ago — a distinction held thanks to its healthy, mature canopy. But the city’s tree population is disappearing — by as much as 20 percent over the last two decades.  The city now has 20,000 trees, a net loss of about 5,000”.

From CBC:

"Every year over the last decade and a half, the U.S. Geological Survey has descended on Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks in California to give 17,000 trees a physical. But in a growing number of cases, what's starting off as a check-up is turning into an autopsy."

"USGS ecologist Nick Ampersee chops into a tree in order to find out what killed it. (Kim Brunhuber) The cause of death is usually insects or fungus, but researchers suspect it's almost always because of one culprit: lack of water. Normally, only about two per cent of the trees in their study areas die. But this year, that number has grown to 13 per cent.

"That's a really severe uptick," says U.S. Geological Survey ecologist Nate Stephenson. "We've never seen anything like it before." Stevenson bends the branch of an incense cedar. Most branches are covered with dry, dead orange needles. The rest are bare.

"I used to call them 'the immortals,' because they just never seemed to die," he says. "In the fourth year of drought, they've started dying by the bucket-loads. So they're no longer the immortals."

...Their research has found that no tree seems to be immune, including the toughest, most drought-resistant trees in this forest: giant sequoias. Some of the trees in Sequoia National Park were a thousand years old when Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon. Last year, Stevenson spent a few days crawling around the forest floor examining sequoia seedlings, convinced they'd be affected by the heat and the drought.

..."They all looked really happy," he says. "I sat back, scratched my head and looked up, and there was a huge adult giant sequoia that had a lot of foliage die-back in it. That really got us interested, and we figured the drought was probably the cause of that. And that created a cascade of studies."

...They found that a significant number of older trees that had shrugged off the Dust Bowl in the 1930s were losing as much as half of their leaves.

..."Ten per cent of the trees had 25 to 50 per cent die-back," says Koren Nydick of the U.S. National Park Service. "This is the first time that this kind of foliage die-back has been observed since this has been a national park."

Well, that kind of foliage die-back HAS been observed since the 1950’s, and has been attributed to pollution. And Sequoia National Park “…garnered the top spot, with nearly a quarter of the year, or 87 days, recording dangerous smog levels”.

A post at Wit's End includes an article in the San Jose Mercury News from May 2012, titled “Sequoia smog damaging pines, redwood seedlings”.

It says, “The Sierra Nevada forest that is home to the biggest and oldest living things on earth -- the giant Sequoia redwoods -- also suffers a dubious distinction. It has the worst air pollution of any national park in the country.”

...“Ozone also is to blame for weakening many stands of the park's Jeffrey and ponderosa pines, leaving telltale yellowing of their long needles. Instead of absorbing carbon dioxide, they soak up ozone through the stoma in their needles, which inhibits photosynthesis. Ozone also stresses young redwood seedlings, which already face challenges to survival.

...Although weakened trees are more susceptible to drought and pests, the long-term impact on the pines and on the giant redwoods that have been around for 3,000 years and more is unclear.”

So why are the scientists ignoring this and focussed on climate change? For that it is enlightening to go back in time, to an extensive report requested by several Senate Committees, that was presented in July of 1989, titled

“Catching our breath: next steps for reducing urban ozone”

From chapter 4 p. 81

“Ozone-induced injury in trees shows up primarily as foliar injury, including leaf or needle discoloration and premature loss. In advanced cases, needles or leaves and then branches of injured trees die back….Reduced growth rates may precede or follow foliage injury. Increased susceptibility to diseases and other stresses may result from reduced photosynthesis and decreased allocation of carbohydrates to tree roots. Ultimately trees may die prematurely. All of these effects have been observed in forest of the San Bernardino Mountains as a result of exposure to high concentrations of ozone originating from NOx and VOC emissions in the Los Angeles basin. In addition to trees, ozone injuries a variety of other plants that occur in forest ecosystems.”

So how come all these stories about dying trees never, ever mention anymore the pernicious effect of ozone that predisposes trees to falling over because they are rotting and their roots have shrunk? What happened to the research program the report is based on, the NCLAN - National Crop Loss Assessment Network? Why did all the trees at the FACE experimental fumigation station get chopped down, and why was a Forest Service study that was investigating the “…interactive effects of environmental stressors on trees, in particular increasing atmospheric CO2, ozone, drought stress, and insect damage” terminated in 2008 - just as trees were starting to topple over in earnest?

In the introduction [to Catching Our Breath], the authors and advisors, who are academics from many major universities, and representatives from regulatory agencies and corporate stakeholders and non-profits note:

“Of the air pollutants that the [Clean Air] act covers, ozone has been the most difficult to bring under control; it may well be the most expensive…One of the key findings of our study is that, once again, we cannot achieve the ozone standard in all areas with currently available technology.”

So basically what happened was that it permeated the regulatory agencies, the corporations, and the greenwashing corporate-funded environmental groups that there is simply no way to reduce ozone, and maintain modern civilization.  So the consensus was, and is, to ignore it.

And that tacit agreement was made without even considering, at the time that report was written, the colossal increase in emissions in Asia. Yet another paper, by no means the only one but just the most recent, traces the movement of pollution across the Pacific to the Americas.  “Atmospheric chemistry: Ozone pollution from near and far” published in Nature Geoscience just a few days ago traces the movement of pollution across the Pacific to the Americas and notes that despite reductions in precursors the background level has barely budged.

But don’t take my word about trees. Go out for yourself and look at them. You will find signs of serious decline - peeling bark, thin crowns, scorched leaves, yellowing needles, holes and broken branches, swelling cankers and leaking sap. Please send me pictures, with dates, species if known, and location - if I get enough I will post them on the blog. Thanks for listening.

Further reading from Wit’s End with photos of trees already severely damaged, before the current drought could have caused visible injuries, in California from 2010 and 2011:

Heat Advisory 9/2010
A Holiday Greeting 12/2010
The Root of the Matter 12/2011
Something Wicked This Way Comes 2/11

...and There Goes the Neighborhood, a 2014 post with rotted fallen trees, and beetle damage in CA

Sunday, August 2, 2015

Dispatch From The Endocene - Number Eight

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Below is the transcript for the 8th Dispatch from the Endocene on Extinction Radio.  You can listen to the entire show where it is embedded at the end, or fast forward to my part at 1 hour 27 minutes in (but then you would miss some excellent poetry and interviews!)

Thank you Mike, I’m glad to have you still with us as host and to know that the unique and wonderful Extinction Radio show isn’t extinct, at least, not yet!  And thank you, listeners, for joining me for this 8th Dispatch from the Endocene.  This is your WooWoo-Free zone, a platform to explore the many ways humanity is hurtling ourselves, and just about every other living thing over the proverbial cliff.  Welcome to a haven for the nihilistic and the dystopia-afflicted refugees from hope.  Today we have a small portion of the burgeoning accounts of species death for your enduring pleasure.  As always you will find links to all the stories mentioned in this episode at the Extinction Radio website, and also  at my blog, Wit’s End.

While the cruel torture of Cecil the lion made headlines and inspired outrage around the world, the Telegraph reported that researchers in Tanzania were astonished to find they had lost two-thirds of a formerly robust population of elephants in a mere four years.  Armies of poachers deployed by crime syndicates have invaded nature preserves with rifles and chainsaws, decimating the elephant population in search of ivory for the China trade.  One scientist described his search for survivors.  “Flying over these huge areas and even driving through, you used to see dozens of huge bull elephants.  There was this incredible sense of life missing from that landscape that’s so defined by these creatures.  It’s just hollow.”  A safari tour guide described it as “carnage”.

The count in the Selous, a game reserve twice the size of Belgium, has gone down from 109,000 in 1976 to the latest inventory, which was a fraction of that, at 13,084 in 2013.  A more recent survey late last year indicates that the butchers have moved on to another park, the Ruaha, where in the year between 2013 and 2014, about 1,000 elephants were lost every month.

In other wildlife news, Bangladesh has revealed there are only about 100 tigers remaining in the world’s largest mangrove forest.  They, too, are being poached and additionally are losing habitat as there has been rapid development on the fringes of their forest.

And then there are the sharks, about 100 million of which are killed every year, mainly for their fins which are used in soup.  One of the report’s authors said "Biologically, sharks simply can't keep up with the current rate of exploitation and demand. Protective measures must be scaled up significantly in order to avoid further depletion and the possible extinction of many shark species in our lifetime."

Although so far, the loss of biodiversity is overwhelmingly attributable to simple expansion of the human population with its attendant paving, logging, farming, pollution, hunting and fishing, climate change is looming fast as a major culprit.  Examples are the dozens of sturgeon found dead in the Columbia River, and the many more thousands of salmon expiring in the rivers of the Northwest US during this unprecedented heat wave.

And although it hasn’t had a major impact yet, rising seas will ultimately finish off many species, among them turtles, whose eggs when buried in the sand become saturated with water and don’t hatch.

For those who are curious I’ve linked to an article that has photographs and drawings of animals that have gone extinct in the last 100 years.  It can’t be all of them of course, because some rare insects and frogs that inhabit tiny niches have disappeared before their existence has even been documented.  But it’s worth taking a look, as we mourn the slaughter of Cecil, and entire species that have disappeared already.

This week I want to return to my favorite subject, the dying trees because once again, a tree has inexplicably fallen in the absence of any obvious external force such as wind or heavy rain.  In this case eight children nearly lost their lives when the 70 foot pine came crashing down on a clear, calm, sunny day.  The number of incidents where trees fall on cars, houses, and people is astonishing unless you consider that they are all weakend, rotted, and their roots shriveled from absorbing pollution.  This is a purely modern phenomena, much like scientists feel confident they just proved that cancer is a purely modern malady in humans, an epidemic that is a direct result of environmental factors.

Where it is recognized that trees are in trouble, the influence of tropospheric ozone - which is to say, our fuel-burning lifestyle - is rarely factored in.  For instance, dying almond trees in California are being blamed on salty water and dying olive trees in Italy are being blamed on a fungus and dying everywhere is being blamed on drought.

Yet, if you read any of the hundreds of studies about ozone, the question should be, how could the trees NOT be dying?  One place to start is a USDA/Forest Service report, titled “Ozone Injury in West Coast Forests; 6 years of monitoring” which was completed in 2007, long before this 4-year drought began.  It states unequivocally that “ozone is present at phytotoxic levels” in many areas of both southern and northern California, noting that injury was first detected in the 1950’s.  It says that “…because of the long lifespan of trees, there is ample opportunity for a long-term, cumulative effect on tree growth.  Ozone has been implicated in the growth decline of pollution-sensitive tree species in the Eastern United States.”

It continues:  “Ozone also has a variety of ecological effects on forested landscapes, with the potential to alter species composition, soil moisture, and fire regimes and influence pest interactions.  Ozone predisposes trees to bark beetle attacks.”

It’s worth taking a look at that report and checking out the photographs there of injured leaves and needles.  Compare them to the trees around your neighborhood and see if any of it looks familiar.

This information really begs the question why we never hear about ozone when scientists talk about wildfires, bark beetles and drought, since ozone itself contributes to all of those problems in a reinforcing feedback that isn’t the least unknown.  Even a UN report recommends reducing ozone because “Far less ground-level ozone could also avoid important losses in global maize, rice, soybean and wheat production”.  It also warns that “A threefold increase in concentrations in the northern hemisphere over the last century has made it the third most important greenhouse gas.”

It’s no wonder that wildfires are longer, more frequent, and fiercer than ever before, and although of course dry hot places are worst, they are by no means the only locations experiencing an increase.  One study tracking the length of the burn season found that “…there are long-term steady increases in fire seasons in places that don’t normally see many fires, like the southeastern U.S., especially the coastal plains of Florida.  One of the researchers said ‘That area has seen some extremely large fires in the last decade, even though that doesn’t get a lot of press’.”

It also doesn’t get a lot of scientific scrutiny either, because when trees die and burn and fall in places that aren’t in drought or experiencing much higher temperatures, it doesn’t fit into the scientific obsession with global warming and CO2.

So it’s no secret that ozone is damaging forests and reducing the yield of major agricultural crops.  It is also true that the background level is increasing, because the major precursors for the formation of ozone - nitrous oxides and methane - are also increasing.  In fact a study from the University of Minnesota just revealed that nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural fertilization have been underestimated by up to 40 percent.  And, to reduce ozone, the UN report mentioned earlier recommends “…policies that curb organic waste, requires water treatment facilities to recover gas, reduce methane emissions from coal and oil industries, and promote anaerobic digestion of manure from cattle and pigs, both major sources of methane.”

I can only imagine what will happen to ozone levels as the methane release from permafrost and clathrates goes exponential.  By then, ozone will probably be the least of our worries.  Fun times!

In any event, humanity continues its interminable practice of deforestation, faster and faster.  Although my anti-capitalist friends like to blame our economic system for all the ills of a collapsing ecosystem, the numbers point towards the basic human urge to procreate.  Although in the past the planet has already lost 80 percent of its forest cover to lumber for construction of buildings and ships, paper, fuel, and even statues like Easter Island and totem poles, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change puts the blame for the bulk of today’s activities on agriculture.  And not industrial agriculture, either.  Their analysis says, “…subsistence farming accounts for 46 percent of the total deforestation in the world, commercial agriculture is responsible for 32 percent.  Other prominent causes of deforestation include logging at 14 percent, and fuel requirements at 5 percent.”

But that doesn’t let the industrialized world of the hook, by any means.  Consider ramen noodles, determined to be “…a main culprit of deforestation due to the high amount of unsustainable palm oil used to make them…” which not only destroys rainforests and threatened orangutans but is a trade that rests on forced and child labor, and leads to the displacement of communities.  It’s difficult to feel virtuous when in addition to being a processed food additive and used in cooking “…about 50 percent of household products contain palm oil, from shampoo and cosmetics to cleaning agents, washing detergents and even toothpaste and candles.”

I’m going to wind up this Dispatch with an elegant study whose lead author is John Schramski from the University of Georgia.  I say it is elegant because it doesn’t even bother with a lot of fussy biology or chemistry interacting with each other.  As the professor said, "I'm not an ardent environmentalist; my training and my scientific work are rooted in thermodynamics.”  The study is titled “Human domination of the biosphere: rapid discharge of the earth-space battery foretells the future of humankind”.

A summary of his paper from the University explains that “Earth was once a barren landscape devoid of life…and it was only after billions of years that simple organisms evolved the ability to transform the sun's light into energy. This eventually led to an explosion of plant and animal life that bathed the planet with lush forests and extraordinarily diverse ecosystems.”

“Scientists estimate that the Earth contained approximately 1,000 billion tons of carbon in living biomass 2,000 years ago. Since that time, humans have reduced that amount by almost half. It is estimated that just over 10 percent of that biomass was destroyed in just the last century.”

The implications appear to be simple and stark, devoid of any issues about human concerns with spirituality or conscious evolution.  And it doesn’t even calculate the influence of pollution, which is surely accelerating the timeframe of imploding biomass.

Schramski was quoted, “If we don’t reverse this trend, we’ll eventually reach a point where the biomass battery discharges to a level at which Earth can no longer sustain us.”

Another suspect “if” appears in the release:  “If human beings do not go extinct, and biomass drops below sustainable thresholds, the population will decline drastically, and people will be forced to return to life as hunter-gatherers or simple horticulturalists, according to the paper.”

Although the obligatory hope that renewable energy will “slow” the ultimate fate, Schramski surely must be too intelligent to put much credence in so-called “renewable” energy if he really accepts thermodynamics about which he says, that "These laws are absolute and incontrovertible; we have a limited amount of biomass energy available on the planet, and once it's exhausted, there is absolutely nothing to replace it."

He adds the disclaimer:

"I call myself a realistic optimist…I’ve gone through these numbers countless times looking for some kind of mitigating factor that suggests we're wrong, but I haven't found it."

However, in an interview with IBTimes he went a little further down the extinction rabbit hole:

"We speak of energy in ways that are sometimes misleading – that a lot of energy is interchangeable. That may be true for manmade devices but when we're talking about running the biosphere, there's only one energy that matters and that's biomass. And biomass is the cornerstone energy to all other energies. It's not interchangeable. There is no replacement for biomass and there never will be."

I have included a link to the full paper, which concludes about as ominously as is imaginable:

"The Earth is in serious energetic imbalance due to human energy use. This imbalance defines our most dominant conflict with nature. It really is a conflict in the sense that the current energy imbalance, a crisis unprecedented in Earth history, is a direct consequence of technological innovation.

"For the first time in history, humanity is facing a global chemical energy limit. The earth-space battery paradigm provides a simple framework for understanding the historical effects of humans on the energy dynamics of the biosphere, including the unalterable thermodynamic boundaries that now pose severe challenges to the future of humankind.

"Living biomass is the energy capital that runs the biosphere and supports the human population and economy. There is simply no reserve tank of biomass for planet Earth. The laws of thermodynamics have no mercy. Equilibrium is inhospitable, sterile, and final."

I’ll be that makes for spirited conversation around the dinner table chéz Schramski!

That’s it for the 8th Dispatch, hang in there everyone.  If all this horror puts you in need of relentless gallows humor with barely a hint of sentimentality, please consider joining The Panic Room, a secret group on Facebook.  Send me a friend request and I’ll admit you.  Namaste.  Namasté?  Namastee?

Links referenced in the above text:

Elephants:
Tigers:
Sharks:
Salmon:
Sturgeon:
Turtles:
Pictures of extinct animals:
Falling tree on children:

Almond trees:
Olive trees:
Cancer environmental:
USDA/Forest Service Ozone Monitoring:
UN report:
Length of wildfire season:
Nitrous Oxide levels:
Deforestation:
Ramen noodles/palm oil:
Study:  Human Domination of the Biosphere:
University press release:
IBTimes Interview:
Full paper:


Monday, July 20, 2015

Dispatch from the Endocene, #7


Below is the transcript and links for the 7th Dispatch from the Endocene, which aired on Sunday, July 19.  The podcast can be heard at the Extinction Radio website.  My part begins at 1 hour 6 minutes into the broadcast.  Many thanks to the hardworking producers, and all the other contributers, especially for the marvelous poetry from Rex Eagle and Benjamin the Donkey...enjoy!

Welcome to the 7th Dispatch From the Endocene, and thanks for listening.  Links to all the information I will mention will be found at the Extinction Radio website.

There is never any lack of material when the topic is the staggering and accelerating loss of earth’s biodiversity.  Much of it is directly due to hunting animals for meat or dubious medical purposes, and logging or other forms of habitat destruction for mining or agriculture.  Less disruptive but perhaps more despicable, there is illegal collecting of protected species - for enthusiasts of plants like orchids, or tropical birds.

One particularly sad episode was the discovery of 3,800 endangered Philippine forest turtles, found tossed in a cement tank in a warehouse.  The turtles were in horrible dehydrated condition, the injured buried under piles of the dead.  Rescuers were able to nurse many of them back to health and release them, but the episode highlights the nefarious activity of poaching for the exotic pet trade as another reason that wildlife is endangered.

Another more elusive cause is no doubt anthropogenic in origin, but harder to trace directly to warming, to pollution, or disease.  That would be incidents like the unexplained dieoff of sea stars up and down the west coast of North America, a tragedy which is updated in a well-researched and worthy article that I highly recommend.  Another is the sudden and inexplicable desertion of their nests, by thousands of sea birds in Florida.  Indeed, a new study reveals that globally, sea bird populations are down by an incredible 70 percent since the 1950’s, which doesn’t bode well for marine species in general.

Yet another pressure on wildlife comes from competition with domesticated animals for habitat and food, which affects little vulnerable mammalian species such as the elusive, and adorably fuzzy Chinese Ili Pika.  For a comprehensive, updated list of links to worldwide dieoff events, you could do worse that visiting end-times-prophecy.org.  Even though they are religious fundamentalists they post exhaustive links to legitimate news stories.

Probably anyone who knows anything about climate change has spent an annoying week swatting at the avalanche of news reports, most of them stupidly distorting recent research regarding sunspots.  There is nothing in the research to indicate we are heading for a mini ice age, but you would never know it from the sloppy media coverage.  

Aside from that, the frenzy it stirred up reminds me once again that the environmental movement made a colossal mistake by allowing the debate over climate change to dominate research and activism.  Not that CO2 isn’t the most important initial forcing greenhouse gas, or that climate change isn’t an existential threat.  But the single-minded emphasis on that facet of overshoot has enabled deniers, both the idiot and the malicious types, to deflect any serious conversation about what underlies climate change.

In fact, as recounted by the UK Guardian environmental editor John Vidal following his recent heart bypass surgery, the concern with CO2 led to a turn towards diesel fuel in Europe, which has since led to far worse health impacts from higher concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and particulate pollution.  He wrote:  “So was my health and that of millions of others cynically traded off against the urgency to control climate emissions? Those working in the UK government in the 1990s recall how climate change trumped any objections from scientists, or from the few people who understood the health implications of a major switch to diesel.”

A similar question might be asked about ethanol and other biofuels, which also emit far more nitrous oxides, a precursor of ozone.  And yet another question might be asked, but almost never is - How much is air pollution sickening wild animals, insects like bees, and plants and trees?

For whatever complicated reasons, the issue of climate change seized the discourse decades ago, and ecology was left to the “softer” science of biology, a discipline looked down upon by physicists and atmospheric chemists.  It turned out to be quite fortuitous for corporations that climate change dangers in the future are easier for people to ignore and for politicians to quibble over, than even more pressing concerns such as not having clean water, running out of fish, and forests being poisoned by ozone.  

There are still lots of climate and social justice activists who claim overpopulation isn’t a problem, even accusing those who are concerned about it of being racist.

So with all this running through my mind it was a fun coinkydink that a friend emailed me an essay titled “Facts - The Coming Destruction of Civilization in the Very Near Future”.  The author is named Jason G. Brent, and his website is jgbrent.com, where you can find more of his writings and a link to his book, called “Humans - An Endangered Species”.

The fascinating thing about the essay is that Mr. Brent makes a persuasive case that civilization is going to collapse, and the human population is going to plunge precipitously if not disappear entirely, without ever once even mentioning climate change.  He comes to this conclusion simply by exploring various scenarios to answer the question he poses, which is:  “How long will it take humankind to completely consume all of the Earth’s resources and destroy itself?”

The way in which he examines this seldom-asked question probably derives from his background as an engineer, with degrees in business, and law.  Mr. Brent looks at the compound growth of population and the economy and has discovered it will inevitably end in a disaster for humanity.  It’s a sort of “do the math” for population similar to McKibben’s Rolling Stone article, Do The Math, for CO2 ppm in the atmosphere.  He compares various UN population projections and relates them to two major, finite resources, essential to contemporary life.  Oil, and fresh water, are both already severely constrained and about to become dramatically more so.  This scarcity will have an increasingly devastating impact on human society, and he predicts civility will break down in horrendous ways should the human population continue its trend of compound growth.

Ultimately Mr. Brent brings us to a point even more rarely considered, which is, when are we going to discuss coercive birth control?  Is it better to hope that voluntary birth control will be sufficient, or leave reduction to be effected by resource wars, at least some of which will almost certainly deploy weapons of mass destruction, rendering swathes of the Earth irradiated?

He lays out the only available options as three:

a) War, starvation, disease and other horrors.
b) Voluntary population control.
c) Coercive population control

To those who recoil at the thought of coercive, I was surprised to see that he quotes my Facebook friend Paul Chefurka (thus proving what a tiny minority the doomer world represents!):

“Is there bread and milk on the store shelves?  If so, everything is fine, so abortion and infanticide can be regarded as sins.  Cut the food supply by 50% and watch the morality change”.

My thought has always been that only coercive birth control will be effective, but it’s not worth pursuing because it will never be acceptable.  Mr. Brent makes the case that even so, it must be put on the table, because the alternatives a and b are, respectively, unthinkable and highly unlikely to succeed.

An interesting contrast to his position can be found in James Hansen’s 2014 Opinion paper, in which he promotes widespread proliferation of nuclear power plants.  According to his analysis, the other so-called clean energy sources - wind, solar, geothermal and so forth - will be wholly insufficient to power modern society - and enable the people of developing nations to rise out of poverty which translates into greater consumption of energy and manufactured products.  He went so far as to call the faith that green technology will save civilization a myth, and scornfully posted a clip from a post-Three Mile Island anti-nuclear protest with Ralph Nader and people promoting not only solar and wind, but also, wood-burning stoves and coal.  He seems frustrated that the general public and the politicians pandering to their anti-science tendencies fail to accurately assess relative risks, noting that fossil fuel emissions kill far more people than nuclear ever dreamed of.  In fact, a new study just emerged claiming that air pollution kills nearly 9,500 per year in London alone.

And yet Hansen seems to have no cognizance that overpopulation is the root of our imminent reckoning with limits to growth.  Perhaps he hangs his well-known hat on the notion that greater prosperity from nuclear power will lower the growth rate without any deliberate effort required, which is…another myth.

There is a video on youtube that zooms in and out of a massively detailed NASA photograph of the Andromeda Galaxy.  It’s truly beautiful and terrible that highly advanced technology has enabled us to see such a wondrous sight that we would never be able to view with the naked eye, although we might imagine it. The universe is so vast, that watching it I had to feel convinced that there must be many, many other planets where life has begun, and places where intelligent, sentient, sophisticated species have evolved - and then, as more and more planets and stars emerged from infinity I could only think that the solution to Fermi’s Paradox must be that sad, and paradoxically comforting notion, that by the time a species achieves the technology to travel or communicate through space, they will have run out of resources, and out of time.

As we humans on earth are, for all but the shouting, out of our brief time here.  If you want to keep up with all the bad news that Fox won’t tell you, check out the website Global Risk Report - which presents an excellent aggregate of the latest and most interesting articles, research, and blog posts about energy, the economy, and the environment.

That’s all for this week, thanks to the producers of this show and especially to Mike Ferrigan, our founder, whom I will greatly miss.






http://www.jgbrent.com/




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