State of Calamity

destroyed houses, overturned vans and cars, and streets and highways covered in debris and mud

Climate Change Science Compendium

A new report from the UN Environment Programme is analyzed here

"The new overview of global warming research, aimed at marshaling political support for a new international climate pact by the end of the year, highlights the extent to which recent scientific assessments have outstripped the predictions issued by the Nobel Prize-winning U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007."

"The group took the upper-range targets of nearly 200 nations' climate policies -- including U.S. cuts that would reduce domestic emissions 73 percent from 2005 levels by 2050, along with the European Union's pledge to reduce its emissions 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050 --and found that even under that optimistic scenario, the average global temperature is likely to warm by 6.3 degrees."

What does 6 degrees mean for our world? First, check out 3 degrees:

What's killing the Aspen?

I love this story about SAD, sudden Aspen decline. It's such a mystery!

"The cause or causes behind the problem remain frustratingly unclear, though scientists have some theories. The dying trees could be over-aged, living longer than they would normally due to fire suppression and thus, much like elderly people, becoming more prone to various ailments. The severe drought of recent years is thought to be playing a significant role, and the impacts of the changing climate may also be adding to the stress that leaves the trees vulnerable to various pests and diseases."

They really are floundering and mention that the trees' root systems are dying and they "drop their leaves, are ravaged by insects, and can't reproduce." SOUND FAMILIAR??

Here was my comment:

Aauurrrgghhh! It's the atmosphere, people! Emissions from vehicles and power plants morph into ozone and PANS, which are toxic to vegetation (and people). Check out my blog for pictures from the East Coast carnage.

It's not that difficult to figure out - published science has demonstrated over and over that volatile organic compounds from gasoline AND ethanol are poisonous to trees and other plants.

Seeing as how I have had severe allergic reactions to wasp bites in the past, this story about the invasive

wasps in Europe makes me quite nervous!

Tonight on the TeeVee

from climate progress

Greenman Video

A Toad

When I left Wit's End early this morning, dead leaves - in September! - littered the drive.

When I came back it was night, and too dark to show that the number of leaves on the ground had increased to the point there was barely any pavement showing.

But when I stopped at the coop to collect the day's eggs (thank you chickens!), an obdurate toad was squatting obstinately in front of the door. Finally, with some prodding, he hopped away.

I saw a lovely fox kit on the way home. It ran ahead of me along the road for a while and then abruptly leapt across to the other side. Fox are so enchanting.

I am in despair for all the critters of the earth. Their demise is deafening in its hollow silence. And I am in even greater alarm and full of grief for the prospects for us humans, since I happen to be related to a few.

Accepting the facts of climate change, as reported by scientific researchers who study the causes and outcomes, is extremely difficult and happens only rarely, because the implications are simply soul-crushing. That's probably why most people either outright deny the climate is changing or, if they do recognize something is afoot, either ignore it completely or convince themselves that the worst effects will be in the distant future, or occur at a distant place, or both.

But not here, not now. And that explains much of our collective paralysis in confronting the necessary actions to mitigate, adapt, and reduce our personal and national carbon footprints.

Not only is the notion that we will have to drastically alter our fossil-fuel guzzling lifestyle uncomfortable and downright scary. The paleoclimatic record clearly demonstrates that climate change is always, and must be, followed by mass extinctions. It's simply part of the evolutionary process that a particular species occupies a particular niche, because it has become suited over time to interact with the other species in its ecosystem, and to breathe a certain atmosphere, within balanced weather and temperature patterns.

The science tells us we are on a path to runaway greenhouse warming, because we have already set in motion destabilizing amplifying feedback effects that once unleashed, lead inexorably to a planet that may well be uninhabitable for any form of life, and certainly, the world we know and cherish.

Accepting this inevitability induces unbearable mourning, which is why even many educated professionals well versed in the recording of such effects already occurring still profess hope that if we, say, lower our emissions by 2015 we can still restrain the worst scenarios.

To acknowledge that we are facing unmitigated global climate disaster(s) is only practical, and resembles the process of confronting mortality, as individuals or the death of a loved one. Only it's much, much worse, because it's not merely the death of one person, or even many, but it's the death of everything that gives meaning to life.

Customs, rituals, families, civil society and the borders of countries all will likely be torn asunder and destroyed if we continue unabated, and likely, even if we magically stopped all greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow morning. History will not even exist, despite the fantasy of a global archivist in the movie, The Age of Stupid. Music, paintings and sculpture, culinary delights, twinkling fireflies, skinny dipping in the surf under the moonlight, anything you can think of that creates delight and joy, won't even exist as a memory, because there won't be anyone left to remember.

For a while I thought that there would be a new growth industry of shrinks specializing in climate anxiety and guilt. But now, I doubt there will be enough time for that to happen. Climate chaos is happening too fast to keep up with.

I'm not going to post links here that support my opinion. Go to desdemonadespair.blogspot.com for the most comprehensive coverage of climate change disasters happening all over the world. And go to climateprogress.org for the science and politics.

And if you've any hope left, even if it's recklessly unreasonable (like me! what the hell)) go to 350.org and sign up.

CBC News - Technology & Science - Polar ice sheets melting into sea: study

These maps show the pattern of surface height change over the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets for the 2003-2008 period. Red areas indicate where the surface height is lowering. (H. Pritchard, British Antarctic Survey)

The massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica are thinning rapidly, say British researchers who have analyzed 50 million laser measurements from a NASA satellite.

Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey and the University of Bristol said the most dramatic loss of ice was the result of glaciers flowing into the sea at a faster rate.

"We think that warm ocean currents reaching the coast and melting the glacier front is the most likely cause of faster glacier flow," Hamish Pritchard of the British Antarctic Survey said in a statement.

The scientists said data from the ICEsat instrument on NASA's Earth Observing System satellite showed that "dynamic thinning" can be seen on the coastlines of Greenland and Antarctica and is spreading into the interiors of the ice sheets.

"We were surprised to see such a strong pattern of thinning glaciers across such large areas of coastline," said Pritchard. "It's widespread and in some cases thinning extends hundreds of kilometres inland."

In Antarctica, the ice sheet is thinning fastest in West Antarctica. The Pine Island Glacier and the Smith and Thwaites Glacier are thinning at a rate of nine metres per year.

The authors of the study, which appears this week in Nature, said the results of the satellite measurements are important to accurately predict rises in sea level as the ice melts into the ocean.

original link here

The Smoking Gun

This photograph of azalea leaves was taken September 15th. At that time the older leaves were shriveled and browned, but the branches had recently put out new growth, although the bright, light new leaves were already showing their cell structure, struggling to photosynthesize and make darker green chlorophyll.

Fast forward to September 22, yesterday. In one week, the leaves are marked by toxic poisoning.


And the original leaves, from the spring growth, are useless. If the plant were healthy, it wouldn't shed leaves until frost.

Lows at night have been in the 60's.

Arg, doesn't show entire thing, you can view it at Wikipedia here.

Note that where I live in New Jersey, peak fall foliage is supposed to come in mid to late October. So why are leaves falling off trees in September??? They are supposed to drop AFTER they turn colors.

This is from the EPA report, page 509:

"Because of the differing sensitivities among plants to ozone, ozone pollution can also

exert a selective pressure that leads to changes in plant community composition. Given the range

of plant sensitivities and the fact that numerous other environmental factors modify plant uptake

and response to ozone, it is not possible to identify threshold values above which ozone is

consistently toxic for all plants. The next few paragraphs present additional information on

ozone damage to trees, ecosystems, agronomic crops and urban ornamentals.

Ozone also has been conclusively shown to cause discernible injury to forest trees.757,758

In terms of forest productivity and ecosystem diversity, ozone may be the pollutant with the

greatest potential for regional-scale forest impacts. Studies have demonstrated repeatedly that

ozone concentrations commonly observed in polluted areas can have substantial impacts on plant

function.759,760

Because plants are at the center of the food web in many ecosystems, changes to the plant

community can affect associated organisms and ecosystems (including the suitability of habitats

that support threatened or endangered species and below ground organisms living in the root

zone). Ozone impacts at the community and ecosystem level vary widely depending upon

numerous factors, including concentration and temporal variation of tropospheric ozone, species

composition, soil properties and climatic factors.761 In most instances, responses to chronic or

recurrent exposure in forested ecosystems are subtle and not observable for many years. These

injuries can cause stand-level forest decline in sensitive ecosystems.762,763,764 It is not yet

possible to predict ecosystem responses to ozone with much certainty; however, considerable

knowledge of potential ecosystem responses has been acquired through long-term observations

in highly damaged forests in the United States.

Laboratory and field experiments have also shown reductions in yields for agronomic

crops exposed to ozone, including vegetables (e.g., lettuce) and field crops (e.g., cotton and

wheat). The most extensive field experiments, conducted under the National Crop Loss

Assessment Network (NCLAN) examined 15 species and numerous cultivars. The NCLAN

results show that “several economically important crop species are sensitive to ozone levels

typical of those found in the Unites States.”765 In addition, economic studies have shown

reduced economic benefits as a result of predicted reductions in crop yields associated with

observed ozone levels.766,767,768

Urban ornamentals represent an additional vegetation category likely to experience some

degree of negative effects associated with exposure to ambient ozone levels. It is estimated that

more than $20 billion (1990 dollars) are spent annually on landscaping using ornamentals, both

by private property owners/tenants and by governmental units responsible for public areas.769

This is therefore a potentially costly environmental effect. However, in the absence of adequate

exposure-response functions and economic damage functions for the potential range of effects

relevant to these types of vegetation, no direct quantitative analysis has been conducted."

Clearly, the EPA is well aware of the dangers to vegetation of ozone!

In an exciting discovery, it appears there ARE some scientists, at the Vulcan Project, emanating from Purdue, who are tracking emissions.

"An animated version of Vulcan reveals huge amounts of greenhouse gas gets blown toward the North Atlantic region."

So in my spare time, I will be investigating their website, which claims:

"Work is underway to complete similar inventories for Canada and Mexico, to include CO and NOx emissions, quantification of all years from 1980 to the present, and incorporate biotic-based fuels (including ethanol!)."

This article about Fall Foliage in the NYT was written in 2005 and already was reporting and predicting a further loss of coloration, but places the blame on temperature increases. I will be writing these researchers to see learn what their current thoughts are.

And news for the day from across the world, dust storm in Australia!

Here is the day's sadness, a dead finch. I don't want to make too much of anecdotal, quite possibly meaningless and random events. But this is the 4th time in my entire life of gardening and hiking that I have come across a dead bird lying on the ground from no apparent cause (kitty cat). The others were twice this summer - a blue bird, and a robin. And once last summer - I was so excited to be able to take pictures of a hummingbird which for once wasn't zipping around too fast to be caught on camera. And then it lay down on a big lily flower and died before my eyes. Draw your own conclusions.

Stop and Smell the Roses

While they still have fragrance...

"Air pollution from power plants and automobiles is destroying the fragrance of flowers and thereby inhibiting the ability of pollinating insects to follow scent trails to their source, a new University of Virginia study indicates. This could partially explain why wild populations of some pollinators, particularly bees -- which need nectar for food -- are declining in several areas of the world, including California and the Netherlands."

Oh, just GREAT! We're already losing the trees, the fish, the walruses, and now the scent of flowers? On Sunday, after I read this, I decided to go to Cross Mansion to look for some. Formerly a private residence, it is now a park, next to Jockey Hollow of Revolutionary War fame. There weren't very many flowers, but I did find a few sweetly modest blossoms remained in the formal gardens.

Along the way I passed this monstrosity. I try not to be critical because it's impossible to live in this society without SOME carbon footprint, but surely there is a line and a house this ridiculously large must have crossed it!No matter how fancy your mansion is though, it won't save your trees. The poisonous gasses are quite democratic, there is no other atmosphere. We all share the same one.

And it has nothing to do with age! This young tree above is deader than the older ones.

I used to pass the gardens on my daily path and often stopped in. This section has lovely stonework and an arbor. That white oak above the wisteria is very old and its crown is extremely thin.

This allee of Japanese Andromeda once had a dense canopy of leaves but there is not much left now but spindly bare trunks.

This splendid huge silver maple has many bare branches. It is obviously very old but that is NOT the reason for the thinning and loss of foliage - such trees are genetically evolved to live for hundreds of years! In the foreground is a small replacement, caged against the deer. But the leaves on the young tree are damaged as well.This is called a twin leaf.I don't know all the names of the many groundcovers here, but looking at the foliage in an established garden such as this, that boasts a huge variety of plants and trees, is a useful exercise because it demonstrates quite conclusively and irrefutably that the symptoms of atmospheric poison are widespread amongst every conceivable species that needs to photosynthesize in order to survive.

These are the leaves of an Oriental lily.The Mountain Laurel has leaves that are yellow or just plain missing.The peony leaves go from scorched to flamed.Here in this perennial geranium is evident the loss of chlorophyll thanks to toxic greenhouse gasses.Phlox is no better.These conifers are pathetically thin, as is the pin oak by the house.The tower was once almost invisible behind evergreens but now there are stumps instead.

This is a cedar that should be blocking out all light.

Sassafras leaves fading from a lack of photosynthesis, and even worse:

"The scent molecules produced by flowers in a less polluted environment, such as in the 1800s, could travel for roughly 1,000 to 1,200 meters; but in today's polluted environment downwind of major cites, they may travel only 200 to 300 meters," said Jose D. Fuentes, a professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia and a co-author of the study. "This makes it increasingly difficult for pollinators to locate the flowers."
The result, potentially, is a vicious cycle where pollinators struggle to find enough food to sustain their populations, and populations of flowering plants, in turn, do not get pollinated sufficiently to proliferate and diversify.
Other studies, as well as the actual experience of farmers, have shown that populations of bees, particularly bumblebees, and butterflies have declined greatly in recent years. Fuentes and his team of U.Va. researchers, including Quinn McFrederick and James Kathilankal, believe that air pollution, especially during the peak period of summer, may be a factor.
To investigate this, they created a mathematical model of how the scents of flowers travel with the wind. The scent molecules produced by flowers are very volatile and they quickly bond with pollutants such as ozone, hydroxyl and nitrate radicals, which destroy the aromas they produce. This means that instead of traveling intact for long distances with the wind, the scents are chemically altered and the flowers, in a sense, no longer smell like flowers. This forces pollinators to search farther and longer and possibly to rely more on sight and less on smell.
The scientists calculated scent levels and distances that scents can travel under different conditions, from relatively unpolluted pre-industrial revolution levels, to the conditions now existing in rural areas downwind from large cities.
"It quickly became apparent that air pollution destroys the aroma of flowers, by as much as 90 percent from periods before automobiles and heavy industry," Fuentes said. "And the more air pollution there is in a region, the greater the destruction of the flower scents."


link to the original story

When pine cones outnumber needles, that tree is in distress.

Here is a copper beech, it's deep leaves bleached to a sickly rust, because it cannot photosynthesize in the atmosphere we have sullied with our pollution.

Asters, and a young Japanese Andromeda, with damaged foliage.It seems most people have forgotten that pine trees are supposed to be green all the time.

This is native butterfly weed leaves and pods.This climbing hydrangea has a late, and stunted bloom, and leaves that range from chlorotic to fried.a Dahlia! The Dawn Redwood is fascinating. It has long dangling growths I have never seen before. On them are nascent cones, very tiny and curious.

Maidenhair fern is shriveled and brown.This home looks as though it has been foreclosed upon, and the occupant abandoned it!
I think this might be leaves of foxglove.The hollies are so bare. Only a few leaves remain, and they are thick with berries. This park used to be characterized by the most intense hedges of vibrant saturated green hollies, and other evergreens. and now it is reduced to stumps.This is a newly planted Japanese Andromeda, in no better condition that the old ones.These are dead flowers from the spring. When plants are poisoned, they can't properly develop and drop their seeds, fruits or nuts and leaves so sometimes they cling, brown and shriveled, and unable to reproduce.

The most painful part for me was to revisit this hydrangea. I still am not sure what variety it is, as it is not labeled, but for years I have paged through nursery catelogues and tried to figure it out and locate the same cultivar, to plant in my own garden. It has absolutely the most gigantic and splendid variegated panicals.

Now most of the flowers are brown.

This enormous example is almost 2 feet long, but still it doesn't have the rich variety of color I remember. The leaves spell doom.

Now this little sample, is what made my heart sing when I first saw it. The shadings of colors are so delicate, and rich.

Here, I just love this:

"Documents later showed that President George W. Bush had intervened personally on the level of smog protection for wildlife, farmlands, parks and open spaces."

from EPA Scraps Bush-era Smog Rule and mind you, the Rethugs, chief among them Murkowski and McInsane, are going to introduce amendments to prevent the EPA from doing its job, according to the NYT

Terrifyingly, the EPA is being pressured to allow HIGHER concentrations of ethanol in gasoline, which may or may not be largely responsible for the dying trees but is most definitely responsible for cancers, asthma, heart failure and emphysema, not to mention, in spite of its being marketed as "green energy," is dependent on petroleum for pesticides and fertilizers, production and transport! And of course it corrals land that could be used for food.